BNY
Rallying on an earnings beat
- BNY +3.11% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $2.37 vs $2.26 expected (beat, +$0.11, +4.8%); revenue $5.7B (+2.1% beat).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +5%; today is the reaction session): After its 20 earnings beats in the past 5 years, BNY closed higher on the reaction session 14 times out of 20; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +4.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral, lowered target $172 → $160.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BNY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
139.23 +1.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
141.22 +2.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 141.91 · prior close 137.64 | |
| Bargain buy side |
136.07 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
134.15 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 135.56 | 2 in 10 days | 139.75 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 136.07 | 3 in 10 days | 139.23 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 136.54 | 4 in 10 days | 138.75 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 133.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 142.41 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 134.15 | 3 in 10 weeks | 141.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 135.20 | 4 in 10 weeks | 140.13 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BNY's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -1.6% | -1.3% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -2.4% | -2.1% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.1% | -2.4% | -10.5% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -2.5% | +2.1% | -3.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.5% | +4.1% | +6.4% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.3% | +1.1% | +5.0% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -1.8% | +8.1% | +6.2% | -3.9% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -1.7% | 0.0% | +10.6% | +7.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among BNY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 182.00 +28.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 4, 2026 |
164.84 +16.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 163.47 +15.2% |
| 50-day average | 154.83 +9.1% |
| Now | 141.91 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 141.22 -0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
137.64 -3.0% |
| 200-day average | 137.33 -3.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 135.00 -4.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 134.15 -5.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 17, 2025 |
104.08 -26.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.