BOOT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BOOT +5.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +5.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BOOT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
115.87 +2.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
119.71 +6.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 119.00 · prior close 112.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
109.93 -2.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
106.40 -5.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 108.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 116.87 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 109.93 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 115.87 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 110.81 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 114.95 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.39 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 122.02 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 106.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 119.71 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 108.32 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 117.59 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BOOT's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.7% | -3.2% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -6.3% | -14.2% | -15.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.7% | +1.0% | -22.3% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.9% | +6.8% | +3.1% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -5.2% | -4.3% | +3.2% | -22.9% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -7.3% | -4.0% | -8.3% | -23.3% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | -3.2% | +2.3% | -3.0% | -5.9% |
| May 7, 2026 | -5.0% | -10.4% | -0.7% | +0.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | -10.1% | +0.7% | -12.1% | — |
| Apr 8, 2025 | -7.7% | +0.2% | +29.3% | +88.6% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | -6.7% | +1.8% | +28.5% | +68.9% |
| Sep 22, 2022 | -8.7% | +4.1% | -1.4% | +2.9% |
| Jul 13, 2022 | -2.3% | +11.0% | +5.3% | -14.9% |
| May 23, 2022 | -3.0% | +12.0% | +1.1% | -0.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among BOOT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Dec 11, 2025 |
207.98 +74.8% |
| 200-day average | 162.04 +36.2% |
| 50-day average | 140.94 +18.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 119.71 +0.6% |
| Now | 119.00 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
112.86 -5.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
112.86 -5.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 106.40 -10.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.