BOX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BOX +3.60% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BOX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
38.80 +1.9% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
39.72 +4.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 39.44 · prior close 38.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
37.35 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
36.49 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 37.12 | 2 in 10 days | 39.04 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 37.35 | 3 in 10 days | 38.80 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 37.57 | 4 in 10 days | 38.58 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 35.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 40.27 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 36.49 | 3 in 10 weeks | 39.72 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 36.96 | 4 in 10 weeks | 39.21 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BOX's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +1.7% | — | — | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +1.1% | -3.9% | +2.6% | — |
| May 28, 2025 | +17.2% | +4.6% | -7.8% | -12.0% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | +2.4% | +3.3% | -3.1% | +3.4% |
| Aug 28, 2024 | +10.8% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +11.2% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | +3.2% | +3.5% | -13.5% | -21.1% |
| Mar 18, 2022 | +2.7% | +1.0% | +15.4% | -14.9% |
| Dec 27, 2021 | +3.5% | -4.7% | -11.3% | +3.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among BOX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 39.72 +0.7% |
| Now | 39.44 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
39.44 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
38.07 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 36.49 -7.5% |
| 50-day average | 34.20 -13.3% |
| 200-day average | 28.01 -29.0% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
21.37 -45.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.