BR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BR +3.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.6%): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, BR was higher a day later 37 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
170.78 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
173.95 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 174.43 · prior close 168.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
165.78 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
162.76 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 164.98 | 2 in 10 days | 171.61 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 165.78 | 3 in 10 days | 170.78 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 166.53 | 4 in 10 days | 170.01 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 161.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 175.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 162.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 173.95 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 164.41 | 4 in 10 weeks | 172.20 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BR's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 6, 2025 |
259.91 +49.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 250.00 +43.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
229.76 +31.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 213.38 +22.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 176.00 +0.9% |
| Now | 174.43 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 173.95 -0.3% |
| 50-day average | 169.41 -2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
168.26 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 166.49 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 162.76 -6.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 29, 2026 |
134.61 -22.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.