BTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (B
TECHStrong Buy
R500#54 today
$86,657.96
+2.23% today · +2.60% 1W
Oct 4 close or latest
PreviewWhy it's moving
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BTC +2.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- 6 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals.
Mentions · past hour
0
-100% vs the day's pace
Mentions · 24 hours
6
-29% vs the week's pace
Mentions · 7 days
59
75% positive
Avg sentiment · 24h
+0.264
per mention, −1 to +1
What Reddit is saying
Funny to see the BTC price spike or dump right before those 15min contracts settle lol.Bybit does not continuously charge fees just for holding Bitcoin in a normal spot account..But if he used those, then he wasn't simply buying and holding Bitcoin with your money, he was actively trading or using leverage, which is a completely different situation..The other part that doesn't make sense is saying Bitcoin needs to stay above $86K for several days or a week so he can "recover the fees.".I wouldn't give him more time to trade the money or try to "make the fees back" until he provides those records..His explanation alone doesn't prove that he stole the money, but what he's describing is not how simply buying and holding Bitcoin on Bybit normally works.Examples: * BTC daily: Polymarket settles on Binance's 1-minute close at noon ET, Kalshi on the BRTI 60-second average at 5 PM ET..** Every sports pair fell in this group, and 7.1% of those resolved baskets didn't pay $1..The backtest showed Polymarket closing abou
Hottest comment
Trading is the hardest thing I've ever done in my life
Why would you start with BTC LOL
Top comments, summarized
Most recent
Weekend Discussion Thread for the Weekend of October 3-4
15min contracts are too manipulated for my taste. The weekly contracts are pretty cool. Hourly is …
- Funny to see the BTC price spike or dump right before those 15min contracts settle lol.
I backtested my own trade-setup ranker across 5,000+ setups: no edge before fees, with any stop placement. What would you test next?
Thanks, that's a really useful way to frame it. You're right that with 148 coins most of the result …
- You're right that with 148 coins most of the result is probably just BTC beta, so the average could be hiding a setup that works in one regime and loses in another.
- Then I'll compare expectancy, trade count and max drawdown per bucket.
- If all three stay flat, I'll drop the idea of a longer holding period.
- MA slope near zero, ADX under \~20, or a volatility band?
- I'd rather fix the definition before I look at the results, so I don't fit the regimes to the outcome.
10 hours ago
I backtested my own trade-setup ranker across 5,000+ setups: no edge before fees, with any stop placement. What would you test next?
Before changing the horizon, I would test the BTC condition, but I'd make it a regime filter rather …
- Before changing the horizon, I would test the BTC condition, but I'd make it a regime filter rather than just "BTC above/below MA".
- With 148 crypto assets, you're probably carrying a lot of common BTC beta, so averaging all setups together could mask whether the indicators have any conditional value.
- First, I would split the exact same signals into bullish, bearish and sideways BTC regimes and then compare expectancy, trade count and drawdown inside each bucket.
- If one of the buckets suddenly has positive expectancy, you will have learned something about when the setup works.
- If all three stay around zero, extending the holding period is unlikely to resolve the underlying issue.
1 day ago
Is my friend scamming me, or is his explanation about Bitcoin and Bybit legitimate?
His explanation really doesn't make sense if he simply used the $3,600 to buy Bitcoin on Bybit.
Byb…
- Bybit does not continuously charge fees just for holding Bitcoin in a normal spot account.
- But if he used those, then he wasn't simply buying and holding Bitcoin with your money, he was actively trading or using leverage, which is a completely different situation.
- The other part that doesn't make sense is saying Bitcoin needs to stay above $86K for several days or a week so he can "recover the fees."
- I wouldn't give him more time to trade the money or try to "make the fees back" until he provides those records.
- His explanation alone doesn't prove that he stole the money, but what he's describing is not how simply buying and holding Bitcoin on Bybit normally works.
1 day ago
How much do you invest per year?
I try to put in 10% of my paycheck each paycheck or set it aside for the month. I spread it out betw…
- inside that domestic I split amongst the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 then keep a small stake in VTI which puts me heavily enough in the top end tech that I want to be in, but its a slight concentration risk I am very aware of.
- It's not a sizeable portion and it is strictly if something dire happens in the U.S. and dollars collapse as the world currency.
- This is a very very very unlikely scenario - but if it ever did come to pass, I have something I could cash out in another currency that isn't dollars and start over in a new country.
- Actual real estate to me is more about cash flow than long term investment growth.
- You'll rarely double your money over a 7-10 year horizon, but the market does that fairly consistently with the right balanced ETF plays.
I generated hundreds of crypto trading strategies and open-sourced 416 of them with full reports. Only 10 passed a brutal 7-stage validation
Yep, thats the next stage. All this was an entrance exam.
7bps/side is almost definitely why t…
- 7bps/side is almost definitely why the BTC scalps went 0/18, thin edges cannot survive friction.
BTC back at 86k
I remember all you babys crying and laughing at BTC well its about to be 100k soon and you guys all …
- I remember all you babys crying and laughing at BTC well its about to be 100k soon and you guys all missing out ;).
5 days ago
I made a bot that spots "risk-free" arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket. Here's the code.
From claude:
It didn't work because the two venues are too efficient against each other and the gap…
- Examples: * BTC daily: Polymarket settles on Binance's 1-minute close at noon ET, Kalshi on the BRTI 60-second average at 5 PM ET.
- ** Every sports pair fell in this group, and 7.1% of those resolved baskets didn't pay $1.
- The backtest showed Polymarket closing about 43% of the gap to Kalshi within 10 seconds, and the best cell made +3.5c +- 1.9c.
- By the time you trade, the price has only moved about 2c your way, and the fills you do get end up losing.
- The lesson from all three is the same: the gaps on screen are either not the same bet, not real depth, or already gone before a taker can act.
Your strategy probably doesn't work. Mine didn't either.
Fair enough, I get why you'd think that, most of those "I tested everything" posts are junk. So here…
- Holding the coins lost 67% and BTC 16%, so it cut the damage in half but didn't make money.
- I also ran 69 standard trend/momentum indicators (MAs, SAR, SuperTrend, Ichimoku, ADX, MACD etc.)
- Best combo was Donchian 20 + SMA 200 + SuperTrend, long only, 2 of 3 have to agree: Sharpe 0.51 vs 0.16 for holding in 2024-26 and half the drawdown.
- On forex, trend (4, 13 and 52 weeks) lost money after costs since 2016, same as what AQR's data shows.
- What I didn't test: a proper CTA-style futures portfolio across commodities, bonds and indices, pyramiding, or discretionary trading.
I backtested my own trade-setup ranker across 5,000+ setups: no edge before fees, with any stop placement. What would you test next?
Ran it. Top 30, weekly, 0.12%/side, \~2.5 years. Your read holds, mostly.
Same exposure each week …
- Same exposure each week spread over the whole top 30 (same timing, no picking) already gets most of it: CAGR 16-18% vs 4% buy-and-hold for 14-56d lookbacks, Sharpe \~0.58 vs 0.38.
- The actual picks add another 5-8 points CAGR on all four lookbacks with a slightly smaller drawdown.
- But the per-week edge of the picks vs the full top 30 is tiny and not significant (t between -0.1 and 0.9).
- One thing I didn't expect: a plain BTC switch (whole top 30 only when BTC's own trend is positive) does worse than the breadth version.
- Thanks, that's a cleaner way to describe what the forward test actually measures.
This one set up made me $9,385
5 percent margin at 50x still makes me nervous even with a good setup. The part I would want to see …
- Moon could help check the broader BTC and ETH setup before entry, but leverage like this makes the stop placement way more important than the win rate.
Day by day
| Date | Close | Change | R500 | Mentions | Positive | Upvotes | Voted sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 04 | 86,657.96 | +2.23% | #54 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 4.0 |
| Sat Oct 03 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.8 | |||
| Fri Oct 02 | 84,463.75 | -0.46% | #365 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 3.5 |
| Thu Oct 01 | 84,853.10 | +1.55% | #106 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 2.7 |
| Wed Sep 30 | 83,553.85 | -0.08% | #134 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 2.1 |
| Tue Sep 29 | 83,622.43 | +0.14% | #169 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -5.0 |
| Mon Sep 28 | 83,502.61 | -1.13% | #359 | 0 | |||
| Sun Sep 27 | 84,458.09 | +0.06% | #1 | 0 | |||
| Sat Sep 26 | 84,406.45 | +0.44% | #1 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 25 | 84,034.92 | -0.41% | #375 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 24 | 84,379.06 | 0.00% | #178 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 23 | 84,383.01 | -2.08% | #425 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 22 | 86,172.28 | -0.50% | #309 | 0 | |||
| Mon Sep 21 | 86,602.91 | +6.73% | #11 | 0 | |||
| Sun Sep 20 | 81,142.61 | -0.11% | #1 | 0 | |||
| Sat Sep 19 | 81,233.68 | +0.41% | #1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1.0 |
| Fri Sep 18 | 80,901.46 | +5.89% | #8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 1.4 |
| Thu Sep 17 | 76,403.77 | +0.33% | #235 | 15 | 9 | 20 | -3.4 |
| Wed Sep 16 | 76,150.32 | +0.71% | #83 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 8.4 |
| Tue Sep 15 | 75,612.51 | -3.26% | #476 | 32 | 23 | 34 | 1.4 |
| Mon Sep 14 | 78,163.38 | +1.72% | #112 | 15 | 13 | 21 | 4.2 |
| Sun Sep 13 | 76,838.16 | -0.56% | #1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1.5 |
| Sat Sep 12 | 77,270.47 | +0.13% | #1 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 10.4 |
| Fri Sep 11 | 77,173.80 | +0.79% | #207 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Thu Sep 10 | 76,568.12 | -2.16% | #429 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3.1 |
| Wed Sep 09 | 78,259.52 | -0.23% | #128 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 |
| Tue Sep 08 | 78,438.58 | -0.86% | #242 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.9 |
| Mon Sep 07 | 79,115.85 | -1.54% | #1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Sun Sep 06 | 80,350.05 | +0.66% | #1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.9 |
| Sat Sep 05 | 79,823.87 | +0.19% | #1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.1 |