BTE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BTE +1.00% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BTE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.18 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
5.31 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 5.13 · prior close 5.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.98 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
4.86 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.95 | 2 in 10 days | 5.21 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 4.98 | 3 in 10 days | 5.18 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 5.01 | 4 in 10 days | 5.15 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.79 | 2 in 10 weeks | 5.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 5.31 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 4.93 | 4 in 10 weeks | 5.24 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BTE's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BTE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 29, 2011 |
45.06 +778.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.31 +3.5% |
| 52-week closing high May 19, 2026 |
5.28 +3.0% |
| Now | 5.13 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.08 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.86 -5.3% |
| 50-day average | 4.71 -8.2% |
| 200-day average | 4.27 -16.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 21, 2025 |
2.19 -57.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.