BTG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BTG +2.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BTG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.13 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
5.32 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 5.12 · prior close 4.99 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.85 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
4.68 -6.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.81 | 2 in 10 days | 5.18 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.85 | 3 in 10 days | 5.13 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.89 | 4 in 10 days | 5.09 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.59 | 2 in 10 weeks | 5.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.68 | 3 in 10 weeks | 5.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.77 | 4 in 10 weeks | 5.22 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BTG's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.0% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.1% | -2.4% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -5.1% | +6.5% | -0.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.2% | +17.9% | +8.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.7% | +4.9% | +40.4% | +36.8% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -4.1% | +0.5% | +8.2% | +38.3% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -3.8% | +4.0% | -1.3% | +39.8% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.5% | -10.2% | -17.2% | +22.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among BTG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 26, 2026 |
6.13 +19.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.32 +3.8% |
| 50-day average | 5.29 +3.2% |
| Now | 5.12 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.99 -2.6% |
| 200-day average | 4.77 -6.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.68 -8.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 20, 2026 |
3.64 -29.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.