BUD
Reddit attention is surging
- BUD +2.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BUD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
80.65 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
82.09 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 81.76 · prior close 79.50 | |
| Bargain buy side |
78.37 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
76.99 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 78.00 | 2 in 10 days | 81.03 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 78.37 | 3 in 10 days | 80.65 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 78.71 | 4 in 10 days | 80.30 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 76.19 | 2 in 10 weeks | 82.95 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 76.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 82.09 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 77.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 81.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BUD's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BUD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 28, 2016 |
109.33 +33.7% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 31, 2026 |
86.48 +5.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 82.09 +0.4% |
| Now | 81.76 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
79.50 -2.8% |
| 50-day average | 78.42 -4.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 76.99 -5.8% |
| 200-day average | 76.38 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 30, 2025 |
59.13 -27.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.