BWA
Moving with the market
- BWA −0.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BWA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
59.79 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
61.41 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 58.39 · prior close 58.50 | |
| Bargain buy side |
57.24 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
55.73 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 56.84 | 2 in 10 days | 60.21 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 57.24 | 3 in 10 days | 59.79 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 57.62 | 4 in 10 days | 59.39 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 54.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 62.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 55.73 | 3 in 10 weeks | 61.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 56.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 60.52 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BWA's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -3.5% | -0.3% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.1% | -1.0% | -5.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -2.8% | -4.2% | -5.9% | — |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -3.3% | -2.8% | -5.6% | -7.1% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -2.8% | -1.5% | -12.6% | -9.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -5.7% | +2.6% | -11.6% | -6.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -6.2% | +4.1% | +15.1% | +10.8% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -2.4% | -3.5% | +1.2% | +24.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among BWA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 4, 2026 |
76.83 +31.6% |
| 50-day average | 63.90 +9.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.41 +5.2% |
| 200-day average | 59.91 +2.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
58.50 +0.2% |
| Now | 58.39 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 55.73 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
40.47 -30.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.