BX
Reddit attention is surging
- BX +2.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $1.29 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±3.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Oct 14): After its 11 oversold readings in the past 5 years, BX was higher a week later 7 times out of 11; half the outcomes fell between -3.1% and +4.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $128 → $124.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
108.42 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
111.22 +4.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 108.36 · prior close 106.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
104.04 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
101.42 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 103.35 | 2 in 10 days | 109.15 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 104.04 | 3 in 10 days | 108.42 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 104.69 | 4 in 10 days | 107.75 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 99.92 | 2 in 10 weeks | 112.90 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 101.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 111.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 102.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 109.68 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BX's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -4.2% | — | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.8% | -6.0% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -2.8% | 0.0% | -8.9% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.6% | -5.6% | -17.9% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -3.6% | -0.4% | -12.0% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -3.4% | +6.2% | +12.1% | — |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -5.9% | +5.8% | +15.1% | +6.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.0% | +7.4% | +11.9% | +25.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among BX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2024 |
187.21 +72.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 184.00 +69.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
158.52 +46.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 141.64 +30.7% |
| 50-day average | 128.72 +18.8% |
| 200-day average | 124.82 +15.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 119.00 +9.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 111.22 +2.6% |
| Now | 108.36 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
106.21 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 101.42 -6.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
100.16 -7.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.