CAH
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- CAH +1.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 72 today so far, above 70): After its 24 overbought readings in the past 5 years, CAH was higher a week later 15 times out of 24; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CAH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
251.66 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
256.58 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 251.13 · prior close 247.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
243.89 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
239.20 -3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 242.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 252.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 243.89 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 251.66 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 245.05 | 4 in 10 days | 250.46 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 236.50 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 259.52 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 239.20 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 256.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 241.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 253.87 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CAH's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +3.7% | +3.9% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | +2.6% | -3.9% | -6.8% | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.6% | -6.4% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.7% | +1.6% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | +2.5% | +0.5% | +1.6% | — |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.8% | +3.8% | -1.1% | -2.8% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.0% | +9.6% | +19.1% | +23.5% |
| May 13, 2026 | +2.1% | +6.9% | +20.1% | +24.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among CAH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 292.00 +16.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 270.33 +7.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 256.58 +2.2% |
| Now | 251.13 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
251.13 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
247.74 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 239.20 -4.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 235.00 -6.4% |
| 50-day average | 233.60 -7.0% |
| 200-day average | 218.69 -12.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
151.83 -39.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.