CAMT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CAMT −4.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: −4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CAMT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
140.81 +3.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
147.36 +8.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 130.03 · prior close 135.72 | |
| Bargain buy side |
130.82 -3.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
125.00 -7.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 129.26 | 2 in 10 days | 142.50 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 130.82 | 3 in 10 days | 140.81 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 132.28 | 4 in 10 days | 139.25 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 121.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 151.35 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 125.00 | 3 in 10 weeks | 147.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 128.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 143.73 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CAMT's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -9.5% | +11.8% | +6.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.4% | +7.5% | +12.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -9.3% | -5.9% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -7.5% | +8.3% | +2.3% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.0% | +12.5% | +10.8% | +21.6% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -8.5% | -7.7% | -8.9% | -4.3% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -7.8% | -8.4% | -19.8% | -24.0% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -5.0% | +3.4% | -4.7% | -17.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among CAMT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 11, 2026 |
207.46 +59.5% |
| 200-day average | 157.53 +21.2% |
| 50-day average | 148.63 +14.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 147.36 +13.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
135.72 +4.4% |
| Now | 130.03 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 125.00 -3.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
94.40 -27.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.