CART
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CART +3.70% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CART only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
50.49 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
51.88 +5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 51.23 · prior close 49.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
48.33 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
47.04 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 47.99 | 2 in 10 days | 50.85 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 48.33 | 3 in 10 days | 50.49 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 48.65 | 4 in 10 days | 50.16 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 46.30 | 2 in 10 weeks | 52.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 47.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 51.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 47.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 51.12 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CART's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CART's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 19, 2025 |
53.15 +3.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 51.88 +1.3% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
51.78 +1.1% |
| Now | 51.23 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
49.40 -3.6% |
| 50-day average | 47.85 -6.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 47.04 -8.2% |
| 200-day average | 42.69 -16.7% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 11, 2026 |
32.93 -35.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.