CASY
Reddit attention is surging
- CASY +3.15% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, CASY was higher a week later 44 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +4.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CASY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
669.09 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
688.72 +5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 674.20 · prior close 653.61 | |
| Bargain buy side |
638.49 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
620.29 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 633.66 | 2 in 10 days | 674.19 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 638.49 | 3 in 10 days | 669.09 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 643.03 | 4 in 10 days | 664.36 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 609.84 | 2 in 10 weeks | 700.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 620.29 | 3 in 10 weeks | 688.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 630.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 677.90 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CASY's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CASY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 933.00 +38.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 11, 2026 |
915.59 +35.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 795.79 +18.0% |
| 200-day average | 735.27 +9.1% |
| 50-day average | 706.16 +4.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 688.72 +2.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 687.00 +1.9% |
| Now | 674.20 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
653.61 -3.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 620.29 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 31, 2025 |
511.97 -24.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.