CBLL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CBLL +3.68% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CBLL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
27.11 +2.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
28.06 +6.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 27.34 · prior close 26.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
25.65 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
24.78 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 25.41 | 2 in 10 days | 27.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 25.65 | 3 in 10 days | 27.11 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 25.86 | 4 in 10 days | 26.89 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 24.28 | 2 in 10 weeks | 28.64 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 24.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 28.06 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 25.25 | 4 in 10 weeks | 27.54 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CBLL's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | +6.9% | — | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | +4.6% | -1.9% | +0.4% | — |
Big drop and big gain: among CBLL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 6, 2024 |
30.24 +10.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 28.06 +2.7% |
| Now | 27.34 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
27.34 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
26.37 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 24.78 -9.4% |
| 50-day average | 23.89 -12.6% |
| 200-day average | 20.52 -24.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
10.92 -60.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.