CBOE
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- CBOE +2.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.2%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, CBOE was higher a week later 44 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +3.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight, raised target $258 → $358.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CBOE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
307.88 +2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
317.30 +5.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 307.35 · prior close 300.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
293.24 -2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
284.54 -5.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 290.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 310.33 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 293.24 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 307.88 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 295.41 | 4 in 10 days | 305.62 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 279.54 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 322.96 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 284.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 317.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 289.27 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 312.11 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CBOE's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +4.4% | — | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | +3.4% | +6.3% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | +2.3% | -5.4% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +2.5% | -5.1% | -9.9% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | +4.8% | +6.7% | -7.5% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | +2.9% | -3.5% | -3.1% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | +4.6% | -7.6% | -3.0% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +2.7% | +9.2% | +4.4% | — |
Big drop and big gain: among CBOE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 13, 2026 |
364.92 +18.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 358.00 +16.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 320.47 +4.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 317.30 +3.2% |
| Now | 307.35 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
300.47 -2.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 288.00 -6.3% |
| 200-day average | 287.78 -6.4% |
| 50-day average | 286.93 -6.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 284.54 -7.4% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 29, 2026 |
230.87 -24.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.