CCL
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- CCL +1.66% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CCL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
26.71 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
27.65 +6.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 26.40 · prior close 25.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
25.25 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
24.39 -6.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 25.02 | 2 in 10 days | 26.95 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 25.25 | 3 in 10 days | 26.71 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 25.47 | 4 in 10 days | 26.48 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 23.90 | 2 in 10 weeks | 28.22 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 24.39 | 3 in 10 weeks | 27.65 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 24.86 | 4 in 10 weeks | 27.13 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CCL's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CCL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 29, 2018 |
65.17 +146.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 43.00 +62.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 33.89 +28.4% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
33.45 +26.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 28.70 +8.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 27.65 +4.7% |
| 200-day average | 27.09 +2.6% |
| Now | 26.40 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
25.97 -1.6% |
| 50-day average | 24.93 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 24.39 -7.6% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 24, 2026 |
21.79 -17.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.