CDNS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CDNS −2.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg ($322.48 today so far, below its 200-day average of $326.94): After its 10 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, CDNS was higher a month later 7 times out of 10; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +12.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CDNS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
337.46 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
347.63 +5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 322.48 · prior close 329.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
321.65 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
312.24 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 319.15 | 2 in 10 days | 340.10 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 321.65 | 3 in 10 days | 337.46 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 323.99 | 4 in 10 days | 335.02 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 306.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 353.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 312.24 | 3 in 10 weeks | 347.63 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 317.36 | 4 in 10 weeks | 342.02 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CDNS's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CDNS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 470.00 +45.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
416.39 +29.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 406.24 +26.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 347.63 +7.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
329.46 +2.2% |
| 200-day average | 326.96 +1.4% |
| Now | 322.48 |
| 50-day average | 320.12 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 312.24 -3.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 300.00 -7.0% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
265.66 -17.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.