CDZI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CDZI +16.46% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +16.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CDZI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.36 +4.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
3.55 +10.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 3.75 · prior close 3.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.08 -4.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
2.92 -9.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.04 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 3.41 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.08 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 3.36 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.12 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 3.32 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.92 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 3.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 3.01 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 3.44 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CDZI's daily swings (about 4.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -5.6% | — | — | — |
| Oct 1, 2026 | -5.6% | -4.9% | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | -5.3% | +10.1% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -6.0% | -12.1% | -13.1% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -7.8% | +17.8% | +11.2% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -4.8% | +15.7% | +32.8% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -8.1% | -8.8% | -3.6% | -6.6% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.7% | -2.9% | -20.3% | -12.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CDZI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 10, 1989 |
531.25 +14066.7% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
6.92 +84.5% |
| 200-day average | 4.47 +19.1% |
| Now | 3.75 |
| 50-day average | 3.67 -2.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.55 -5.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.22 -14.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 29, 2026 |
2.98 -20.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.92 -22.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 38 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.