CEG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CEG −1.66% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its ai power & nuclear peers +0.6% (+0.4 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 6 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, CEG was higher a day later 1 time out of 6; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and -0.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Bernstein reiterated Outperform, target $296.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CEG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
289.68 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
302.71 +8.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 274.91 · prior close 279.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
269.76 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
258.14 -7.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 266.66 | 2 in 10 days | 293.05 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 269.76 | 3 in 10 days | 289.68 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 272.68 | 4 in 10 days | 286.57 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 251.55 | 2 in 10 weeks | 310.65 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 258.14 | 3 in 10 weeks | 302.71 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 264.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 295.50 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CEG's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2026 | -4.0% | +17.9% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.1% | -0.9% | +11.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.9% | +4.3% | -1.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.8% | +2.9% | +7.7% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | -4.2% | -1.6% | +6.1% | +6.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.7% | -0.4% | -4.0% | +17.5% |
| May 27, 2026 | -4.3% | -7.4% | -8.5% | -3.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among CEG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
401.70 +46.1% |
| Highest analyst target | 395.00 +43.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 341.53 +24.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 302.71 +10.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 290.00 +5.5% |
| 200-day average | 283.98 +3.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
279.54 +1.7% |
| 50-day average | 275.41 +0.2% |
| Now | 274.91 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 258.14 -6.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 1, 2026 |
236.14 -14.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.