CF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CF +0.73% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 12): After its 14 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, CF was higher a day later 9 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
121.86 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
124.89 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 120.33 · prior close 119.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
117.11 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
114.27 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 116.35 | 2 in 10 days | 122.65 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 117.11 | 3 in 10 days | 121.86 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 117.82 | 4 in 10 days | 121.13 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 112.63 | 2 in 10 weeks | 126.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 114.27 | 3 in 10 weeks | 124.89 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 115.81 | 4 in 10 weeks | 123.22 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CF's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 195.72 +62.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 2, 2026 |
139.27 +15.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 127.69 +6.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 124.89 +3.8% |
| 50-day average | 123.23 +2.4% |
| Now | 120.33 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
119.46 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 114.27 -5.0% |
| 200-day average | 113.48 -5.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 105.00 -12.7% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 10, 2025 |
74.99 -37.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.