CGNX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CGNX −4.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: −4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CGNX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
59.08 +3.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
61.40 +7.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 54.84 · prior close 57.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
55.51 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
53.42 -6.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 54.96 | 2 in 10 days | 59.68 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 55.51 | 3 in 10 days | 59.08 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 56.04 | 4 in 10 days | 58.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 52.22 | 2 in 10 weeks | 62.81 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 53.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 61.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 54.56 | 4 in 10 weeks | 60.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CGNX's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -7.7% | -6.4% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -4.9% | +1.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -6.7% | +3.5% | +0.2% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.0% | +3.0% | -1.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.8% | -5.5% | -3.9% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -4.7% | -8.6% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.2% | +22.3% | +9.1% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.3% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among CGNX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 12, 2021 |
90.76 +65.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
72.32 +31.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.40 +12.0% |
| 50-day average | 61.40 +12.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
57.27 +4.4% |
| 200-day average | 56.76 +3.5% |
| Now | 54.84 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 53.42 -2.6% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 15, 2025 |
34.65 -36.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 37 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.