CHD
Moving with its group (XLP +1.2%)
- CHD +0.91% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 14): After its 14 overbought readings in the past 5 years, CHD was higher a week later 9 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $110 → $105.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CHD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
103.77 +1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
105.19 +2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 103.56 · prior close 102.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
101.50 -1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
100.13 -2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 101.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 104.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 101.50 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 103.77 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 101.84 | 4 in 10 days | 103.42 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 99.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 106.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 100.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 105.19 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 100.88 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 104.41 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CHD's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | +1.8% | — | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +3.8% | -2.7% | -6.3% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +3.0% | -0.2% | -3.3% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +1.8% | 0.0% | +4.3% | +3.4% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +1.5% | -3.6% | +4.7% | -3.0% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.9% | +0.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +2.8% | +0.8% | -0.6% | +2.2% |
| May 18, 2026 | +2.9% | -0.1% | +0.7% | +2.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among CHD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 115.00 +11.0% |
| All-time closing high Mar 10, 2025 |
111.04 +7.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 105.19 +1.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 104.84 +1.2% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 23, 2026 |
104.60 +1.0% |
| Now | 103.56 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
102.63 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 100.13 -3.3% |
| 50-day average | 98.24 -5.1% |
| 200-day average | 96.20 -7.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 30, 2025 |
80.75 -22.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 78.00 -24.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.