CHE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CHE +0.85% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CHE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
519.26 +1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
526.88 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 517.55 · prior close 513.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
507.17 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
499.83 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 505.23 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 521.25 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 507.17 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 519.26 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 508.98 | 4 in 10 days | 517.41 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 495.57 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 531.41 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 499.83 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 526.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 503.84 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 522.70 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CHE's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | +3.3% | -0.9% | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.3% | -3.4% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | +2.2% | +2.3% | +12.7% | +2.4% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +2.2% | +3.7% | +11.7% | +10.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | +2.5% | +3.1% | +17.6% | +17.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +2.3% | +1.8% | +12.6% | +22.9% |
| May 15, 2026 | +2.0% | +1.1% | 0.0% | +21.1% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | +2.6% | +11.0% | +14.7% | +33.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among CHE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 19, 2024 |
643.59 +24.4% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 7, 2026 |
551.99 +6.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 526.88 +1.8% |
| 50-day average | 518.91 +0.3% |
| Now | 517.55 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
513.18 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 499.83 -3.4% |
| 200-day average | 457.56 -11.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
367.60 -29.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.