CHTR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CHTR +2.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, CHTR was higher a month later 31 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -7.3% and +6.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CHTR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
108.41 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
112.60 +7.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 107.81 · prior close 105.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
101.97 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
98.18 -6.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 100.96 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 109.50 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 101.97 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 108.41 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 102.92 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 107.41 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 96.01 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 115.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 98.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 112.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 100.23 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 110.29 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CHTR's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CHTR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 2, 2021 |
821.01 +661.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 380.00 +252.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
266.25 +147.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 176.50 +63.7% |
| 200-day average | 170.34 +58.0% |
| 50-day average | 133.89 +24.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 112.60 +4.4% |
| Now | 107.81 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
105.14 -2.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 12, 2026 |
102.48 -4.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 98.18 -8.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 68.00 -36.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.