CHWY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CHWY +2.38% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CHWY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
21.42 +2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
22.18 +6.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 21.33 · prior close 20.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
20.25 -2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
19.56 -6.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 20.07 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 21.62 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 20.25 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 21.42 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 20.43 | 4 in 10 days | 21.24 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 19.16 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 22.64 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 19.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 22.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 19.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 21.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CHWY's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +3.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +4.5% | -3.9% | -7.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +4.1% | +7.2% | -9.3% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +4.9% | -6.8% | +0.3% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +4.5% | +5.4% | +13.3% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.5% | +5.9% | -7.1% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | +6.5% | +8.4% | +9.7% | -2.4% |
| May 22, 2026 | +4.0% | +7.5% | -8.3% | +18.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among CHWY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 12, 2021 |
118.69 +456.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
38.31 +79.6% |
| 200-day average | 23.90 +12.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 22.18 +4.0% |
| Now | 21.33 |
| 50-day average | 21.29 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
20.83 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 19.56 -8.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 22, 2026 |
17.51 -17.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.