CIEN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CIEN +3.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 13 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, CIEN typically gained 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher 54% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.9%. An ordinary week: +0.9%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #119 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.2%#8 H | +0.9%#27 H | +3.6%#42 H | +7.9%#97 M |
| Big drop (-4.0% or worse) | 75 | +0.4%#141 H | +1.5%#141 H | +5.5%#23 H | +13.9%#133 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+5.2% or better) | 81 | +0.7%#9 H | +1.5%#78 H | +4.8%#79 H | +19.1%#124 M |
| Earnings beat | 15 | -2.1%#453 M | -3.0%#455 M | +1.8%#183 M | +8.3%#120 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -1.6%#202 L | -0.5%#175 L | -3.9%#206 L | -6.0%#175 L |
| 52-week high | 14 | +1.2%#97 M | +3.2%#61 M | +3.6%#135 M | +25.2%#178 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | +0.7%– | +5.5%– | +5.1%– | +30.8%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 14 | +0.3%#166 M | +1.1%#119 M | 0.0%#358 M | +8.7%#105 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 14 | +1.0%#47 M | +1.0%#218 M | +2.1%#150 M | +5.1%#192 M |
| RSI oversold | 7 | +0.7%#192 L | -2.5%#477 L | +0.1%#307 L | -2.2%#436 L |
| RSI overbought | 24 | -0.1%#306 H | -0.1%#242 H | +2.0%#187 H | +15.9%#106 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is CIEN's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 24 | -0.12% (-0.6 to +0.2) | High | #306 of 501 | 42% | +0.10% |
-13%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 24 | -0.06% (-3.5 to +0.6) | High | #242 of 501 | 50% | -0.91% |
-14%
+14%
|
|
| 1 month | 24 ≈21 indep. | +2.04% (-4.5 to +7.2) | High | #187 of 501 | 58% | +1.36% |
-20%
+33%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 24 ≈13 indep. | +15.89% (-2.9 to +23.1) | Medium | #106 of 501 | 62% | +13.90% |
-34%
+95%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CIEN's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 20 | 0.0%H vs +0.2% | -1.0%H vs +1.0% | +2.0%M vs +3.9% | +21.0%M vs +12.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | -0.7%– vs +0.3% | -0.7%– vs +1.2% | -14.8%– vs +5.0% | -2.9%– vs +11.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 22 | -0.1%H vs +0.2% | -1.0%H vs +1.3% | +1.5%M vs +6.1% | +13.9%M vs +12.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 24 | -0.1%H vs +0.2% | -0.1%H vs +1.0% | +2.0%H vs +4.3% | +15.9%M vs +9.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where CIEN stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | May 6 @ $576.79 | RSI 71.3, +5.9% on the day | -6.6% | +0.2% | -15.4% | -30.0% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $412.58 | RSI 74.1, +7.1% on the day | -7.0% | -6.0% | +22.0% | +3.8% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Feb 18 @ $310.96 | RSI 70.2, +2.9% on the day | +2.4% | +13.6% | +32.7% | +74.3% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Dec 11 @ $242.37 | RSI 76.4, +9.2% on the day | -9.9% | -13.1% | +1.7% | +50.1% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Oct 23 @ $172.58 | RSI 70.7, +4.9% on the day | +3.7% | +9.5% | +3.3% | +34.6% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Sep 4 @ $116.92 | RSI 78.2, +23.3% on the day | -0.2% | +13.3% | +29.5% | +65.4% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Jul 25 @ $88.60 | RSI 71.1, +1.6% on the day | +2.2% | 0.0% | +2.4% | +94.8% |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Jun 4 @ $83.89 | RSI 70.4, +0.8% on the day | -12.9% | -13.9% | -4.5% | +39.4% |
| May 12, 2025 | May 12 @ $79.01 | RSI 74.0, +5.7% on the day | +2.0% | +2.5% | -8.6% | +22.0% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Jan 22 @ $94.85 | RSI 73.3, +7.0% on the day | +3.5% | -14.2% | -11.4% | -34.0% |
| Dec 12, 2024 | Dec 12 @ $84.52 | RSI 76.6, +15.4% on the day | +6.2% | +1.5% | +1.4% | -23.9% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Nov 8 @ $71.91 | RSI 70.6, +2.3% on the day | +0.2% | -6.5% | -1.4% | +23.5% |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Oct 10 @ $68.50 | RSI 71.4, +1.5% on the day | 0.0% | -2.9% | +5.0% | +20.1% |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Sep 23 @ $61.68 | RSI 74.5, +5.0% on the day | -1.9% | -0.1% | +7.2% | +41.7% |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Aug 27 @ $57.02 | RSI 70.4, +0.4% on the day | 0.0% | -3.7% | +9.5% | +23.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.