CIFR
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- CIFR −4.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Filing: 8-K: other event (item 8.01) (filing)
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure, other event (item 7.01, 8.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, 52-week low ($9.44 today so far, below its 52-week closing low of $9.94): After its 5 new 52-week lows in the past 5 years, CIFR was higher a day later 1 time out of 5; half the outcomes fell between -5.9% and -1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 9 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 70% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $54.00 → $51.50.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CIFR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.62 +6.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
11.52 +15.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 9.44 · prior close 9.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.30 -6.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
8.58 -13.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.11 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 10.85 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 9.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 10.62 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 9.49 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 10.41 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.17 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 12.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 11.52 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 8.97 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 11.02 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CIFR's daily swings (about 6.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -12.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -8.7% | -1.1% | -20.1% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -9.5% | +16.9% | +8.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -13.0% | +1.3% | +5.3% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -15.6% | -15.6% | -25.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -10.3% | -3.6% | -33.7% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -9.2% | +2.3% | -14.3% | -32.7% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -12.3% | +10.3% | +20.6% | -22.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -12.8% | — | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2025 | -11.8% | -1.1% | +14.9% | +56.3% |
| Dec 12, 2022 | -5.8% | -15.1% | +42.9% | +149.0% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | -11.6% | +27.9% | +1.8% | +97.1% |
| Sep 29, 2022 | -9.0% | +4.1% | -5.7% | -63.2% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -9.8% | +14.9% | +8.1% | +15.5% |
| May 10, 2022 | -46.7% | +9.9% | -0.6% | +34.9% |
| Feb 22, 2022 | -6.8% | +15.3% | +39.7% | -24.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CIFR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 59.00 +524.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 30.14 +219.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
29.18 +208.9% |
| 200-day average | 18.20 +92.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 18.00 +90.6% |
| 50-day average | 16.09 +70.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 11.52 +22.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
9.94 +5.2% |
| Now | 9.44 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
9.44 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.58 -9.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.