CL
Moving with the market
- CL +0.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 14): After its 16 overbought readings in the past 5 years, CL was higher a day later 5 times out of 16; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +0.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $95.00 → $90.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
93.94 +1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
95.40 +2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 93.11 · prior close 92.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
91.63 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
90.23 -2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 91.26 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 94.33 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 91.63 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 93.94 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 91.98 | 4 in 10 days | 93.59 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.41 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 96.27 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 90.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 95.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 90.99 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 94.60 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CL's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | +2.3% | +4.4% | — | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +2.9% | -0.2% | -2.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.8% | -3.7% | -1.7% | -0.8% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.6% | -3.0% | -5.0% | -10.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.1% | +0.3% | -0.9% | -4.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +4.1% | +1.0% | +5.0% | +0.8% |
| May 18, 2026 | +2.0% | -0.1% | +0.7% | +2.3% |
| May 6, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.3% | +0.5% | +6.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among CL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 110.00 +18.1% |
| All-time closing high Sep 4, 2024 |
103.79 +11.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 98.25 +5.5% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
97.97 +5.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 95.40 +2.5% |
| Now | 93.11 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
92.78 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 90.23 -3.1% |
| 50-day average | 89.14 -4.3% |
| 200-day average | 88.34 -5.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 87.00 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
73.64 -20.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.