CLF
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CLF −3.82% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Mon before the open (date not confirmed): EPS $0.24 expected (5 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CLF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
13.01 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
13.56 +7.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 12.10 · prior close 12.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.17 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
11.67 -7.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 12.03 | 2 in 10 days | 13.15 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 12.17 | 3 in 10 days | 13.01 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 12.29 | 4 in 10 days | 12.88 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.39 | 2 in 10 weeks | 13.89 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 11.67 | 3 in 10 weeks | 13.56 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 11.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 13.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CLF's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CLF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 30, 2008 |
98.06 +710.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2025 |
16.18 +33.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.56 +12.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
12.58 +4.0% |
| Now | 12.10 |
| 50-day average | 12.01 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.67 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 11.34 -6.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
7.82 -35.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.