CMCSA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CMCSA +3.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $0.99 expected (20 analysts); it moved ±5.3% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, CMCSA was higher a day later 34 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CMCSA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
21.39 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
21.81 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 21.69 · prior close 21.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
20.72 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
20.31 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 20.61 | 2 in 10 days | 21.50 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 20.72 | 3 in 10 days | 21.39 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 20.82 | 4 in 10 days | 21.29 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.08 | 2 in 10 weeks | 22.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 20.31 | 3 in 10 weeks | 21.81 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 20.53 | 4 in 10 weeks | 21.58 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CMCSA's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CMCSA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 2, 2021 |
48.42 +123.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 44.00 +102.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
31.19 +43.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 28.85 +33.0% |
| 200-day average | 25.66 +18.3% |
| 50-day average | 23.86 +10.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 21.81 +0.6% |
| Now | 21.69 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
21.05 -3.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 9, 2026 |
20.66 -4.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 20.31 -6.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 17.00 -21.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.