CME
Moving with its group (XLF +1.1%)
- CME +1.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $2.98 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±1.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, CME was higher a day later 43 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, raised target $330 → $337.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CME only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
289.71 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
294.87 +3.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 289.41 · prior close 285.59 | |
| Bargain buy side |
281.53 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
276.60 -3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 280.23 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 291.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 281.53 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 289.71 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 282.76 | 4 in 10 days | 288.45 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 273.74 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 297.95 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 276.60 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 294.87 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 279.29 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 292.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CME's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | +2.6% | +2.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.8% | -1.8% | -0.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | +1.7% | -1.6% | -7.5% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +1.9% | +1.4% | +5.5% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +5.0% | +6.5% | +8.7% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +2.0% | 0.0% | +5.8% | +15.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +4.6% | +3.8% | +15.9% | +13.9% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +2.1% | +2.2% | -6.1% | +7.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among CME's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 337.00 +16.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
315.71 +9.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 294.87 +1.9% |
| Now | 289.41 |
| Mean analyst target | 289.06 -0.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
285.59 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 276.60 -4.4% |
| 200-day average | 275.05 -5.0% |
| 50-day average | 272.58 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 29, 2026 |
217.56 -24.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 217.00 -25.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.