CMI
Moving with the market
- CMI −0.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $874 → $760.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CMI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
533.62 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
543.25 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 525.15 · prior close 525.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
518.41 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
509.22 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 515.98 | 2 in 10 days | 536.14 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 518.41 | 3 in 10 days | 533.62 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 520.68 | 4 in 10 days | 531.29 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 503.90 | 2 in 10 weeks | 548.99 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 509.22 | 3 in 10 weeks | 543.25 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 514.23 | 4 in 10 weeks | 537.96 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CMI's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CMI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 890.00 +69.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 737.08 +40.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
724.89 +38.0% |
| 200-day average | 600.85 +14.4% |
| 50-day average | 559.26 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 543.25 +3.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 530.00 +0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
525.96 +0.2% |
| Now | 525.15 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 509.22 -3.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 22, 2025 |
402.10 -23.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.