CNH
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CNH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.08 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
12.49 +6.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 11.95 · prior close 11.76 | |
| Bargain buy side |
11.45 -2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
11.07 -5.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 11.35 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 12.19 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 11.45 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 12.08 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 11.54 | 4 in 10 days | 11.98 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 10.86 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 12.74 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 11.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 12.49 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 11.28 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 12.26 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CNH's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | +4.5% | -5.2% | — | — |
| Oct 2, 2026 | +4.8% | -15.4% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +5.7% | +11.2% | +2.8% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | +6.4% | +4.4% | +23.1% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | +5.4% | -3.0% | +15.7% | +8.9% |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +3.4% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +7.9% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | +3.2% | +5.9% | +8.1% | +33.4% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | +11.2% | -1.9% | -2.1% | +14.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among CNH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 1, 2023 |
16.25 +35.9% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 4, 2026 |
14.40 +20.5% |
| 50-day average | 12.55 +5.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.49 +4.5% |
| Now | 11.95 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
11.76 -1.6% |
| 200-day average | 11.28 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.07 -7.4% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 31, 2025 |
9.13 -23.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.