CNTN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CNTN +3.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CNTN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1.94 +5.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
2.07 +12.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1.90 · prior close 1.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1.74 -5.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.63 -11.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1.71 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 1.97 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1.74 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 1.94 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1.77 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 1.91 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.56 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.63 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1.69 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.00 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CNTN's daily swings (about 5.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -8.0% | -4.8% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -8.6% | +6.0% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -8.8% | +3.4% | +8.2% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -10.9% | -1.0% | -2.0% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -9.7% | -11.5% | -25.5% | -12.3% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -17.5% | +10.3% | -27.2% | -15.9% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -9.5% | -5.5% | +4.8% | -18.7% |
| May 18, 2026 | -9.9% | +0.9% | +8.6% | -38.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | -3.2% | +9.0% | -18.1% | -6.0% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | -3.6% | -0.5% | -25.8% | -17.9% |
| Sep 25, 2024 | -12.3% | -1.3% | -16.1% | -10.9% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | -13.5% | +10.4% | +10.0% | -0.4% |
| May 22, 2024 | -16.6% | -8.2% | -38.9% | -39.5% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | -3.6% | +8.0% | +18.1% | +4.3% |
| Jan 12, 2024 | -6.5% | -11.7% | -14.2% | -18.5% |
| Nov 21, 2023 | -17.0% | -73.3% | -85.2% | -89.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CNTN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 2, 2022 |
1,537.50 +80608.7% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 2, 2026 |
5.48 +187.7% |
| 200-day average | 3.03 +59.3% |
| 50-day average | 2.17 +14.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.07 +8.7% |
| Now | 1.90 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
1.84 -3.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1.84 -3.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.63 -14.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.