COAG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- COAG +6.28% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +6.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COAG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
31.12 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
32.65 +9.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 31.82 · prior close 29.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.80 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
27.46 -8.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.44 | 2 in 10 days | 31.51 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 28.80 | 3 in 10 days | 31.12 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 29.14 | 4 in 10 days | 30.76 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 26.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 33.58 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 32.65 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 28.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 31.80 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COAG's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among COAG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
54.94 +72.7% |
| 50-day average | 41.41 +30.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 32.65 +2.6% |
| Now | 31.82 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.94 -5.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.46 -13.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 12, 2026 |
24.98 -21.5% |
Closing prices. Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.