COF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- COF +1.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue after the close: EPS $5.50 expected (17 analysts); it moved ±3.4% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $253 → $242.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
196.91 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
200.12 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 196.90 · prior close 194.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
191.82 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
188.74 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 191.01 | 2 in 10 days | 197.75 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 191.82 | 3 in 10 days | 196.91 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 192.58 | 4 in 10 days | 196.13 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 186.96 | 2 in 10 weeks | 202.04 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 188.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 200.12 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 190.42 | 4 in 10 weeks | 198.36 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COF's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among COF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 290.00 +47.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
254.96 +29.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 254.77 +29.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 219.00 +11.2% |
| 50-day average | 208.27 +5.8% |
| 200-day average | 202.38 +2.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 200.12 +1.6% |
| Now | 196.90 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
194.35 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 188.74 -4.1% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
174.73 -11.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.