COHR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- COHR −6.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: −7.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-7.0% today so far, past its big-drop line of -5.5%): After its 76 big drops in the past 5 years, COHR was higher a day later 42 times out of 76; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +2.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, target $500.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COHR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
278.60 +5.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
298.72 +13.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 244.94 · prior close 263.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
248.88 -5.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
232.12 -11.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 244.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 283.75 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 248.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 278.60 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 253.17 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 273.88 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 222.80 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 311.21 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 232.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 298.72 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 241.15 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 287.52 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COHR's daily swings (about 5.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -9.6% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -12.7% | +20.6% | +8.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.5% | +1.0% | +4.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -12.8% | -6.0% | -3.4% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -14.2% | +8.0% | -6.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -9.8% | -6.9% | -2.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.5% | +13.1% | +17.6% | -4.9% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.4% | -1.1% | +4.5% | +6.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among COHR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 500.00 +104.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
426.89 +74.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 412.52 +68.4% |
| 50-day average | 301.76 +23.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 298.72 +22.0% |
| 200-day average | 294.25 +20.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 280.00 +14.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
263.32 +7.5% |
| Now | 244.94 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 232.12 -5.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
109.37 -55.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.