COIN
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- COIN +2.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its crypto-linked peers -1.5% (-1.6 pts vs SPY).
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, raised target $250 → $258.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COIN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
179.92 +4.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
189.00 +9.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 177.46 · prior close 172.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
166.14 -3.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
158.16 -8.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 164.00 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 182.26 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 166.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 179.92 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 168.15 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 177.76 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 153.65 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 194.54 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 158.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 189.00 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 162.48 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 183.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COIN's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among COIN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 18, 2025 |
419.78 +136.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
361.43 +103.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 330.00 +86.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 211.31 +19.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 189.00 +6.5% |
| 200-day average | 182.58 +2.9% |
| Now | 177.46 |
| 50-day average | 176.95 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
172.89 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 158.16 -10.9% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 12, 2026 |
141.09 -20.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 110.00 -38.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.