COO
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- COO +3.28% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, COO was higher a month later 40 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -4.2% and +5.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays started coverage at Equal-Weight, target $60.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
56.22 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
57.93 +5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 56.68 · prior close 54.88 | |
| Bargain buy side |
53.57 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
51.99 -5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 53.15 | 2 in 10 days | 56.67 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 53.57 | 3 in 10 days | 56.22 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 53.96 | 4 in 10 days | 55.81 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 51.08 | 2 in 10 weeks | 58.96 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 51.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 57.93 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 52.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 56.99 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COO's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among COO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 3, 2021 |
113.94 +101.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
84.32 +48.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 75.00 +32.3% |
| 200-day average | 70.16 +23.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 65.80 +16.1% |
| 50-day average | 63.84 +12.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 58.00 +2.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 57.93 +2.2% |
| Now | 56.68 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
54.88 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 15, 2026 |
53.27 -6.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 51.99 -8.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 44 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.