COP
Moving with the market
- COP +0.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($142.35 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $142.34): After its 5 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, COP was higher a day later 2 times out of 5; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +0.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Truist Securities maintained Hold, raised target $130 → $136.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
144.92 +1.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
148.18 +4.1% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 142.35 · prior close 142.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
139.80 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
136.73 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 138.99 | 2 in 10 days | 145.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 139.80 | 3 in 10 days | 144.92 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 140.57 | 4 in 10 days | 144.13 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 134.96 | 2 in 10 weeks | 150.12 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 136.73 | 3 in 10 weeks | 148.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 138.41 | 4 in 10 weeks | 146.38 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COP's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | +3.3% | -4.0% | -5.5% | — |
| Mar 12, 2026 | +2.8% | +4.8% | +2.8% | -3.4% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | +1.4% | +3.3% | +14.6% | +19.1% |
| Mar 25, 2024 | +2.6% | +3.5% | +2.4% | -8.3% |
| Oct 13, 2022 | +5.5% | -0.8% | +9.1% | 0.0% |
| May 6, 2022 | +4.7% | -4.4% | +14.5% | -12.0% |
| Mar 21, 2022 | +3.2% | +0.7% | +0.2% | -2.7% |
| Feb 7, 2022 | +1.2% | -1.0% | +4.0% | +5.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among COP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 189.00 +32.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 148.18 +4.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 147.73 +3.8% |
| Now | 142.35 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
142.35 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
142.34 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 136.73 -3.9% |
| 50-day average | 131.08 -7.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 126.00 -11.5% |
| 200-day average | 117.37 -17.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
83.04 -41.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.