COST
Moving with the market
- COST +0.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +0.9% (+0.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Filing: 8-K: other event (item 8.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 11 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, COST was higher a day later 4 times out of 11; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 13 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.9× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: RBC Capital reiterated Sector Perform, target $1,000.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 3 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
993.57 +1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
1,008.07 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 986.96 · prior close 982.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
970.56 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
956.61 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 966.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 997.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 970.56 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 993.57 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 974.01 | 4 in 10 days | 990.05 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 948.50 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 1,016.68 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 956.61 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 1,008.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 964.23 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 1,000.10 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COST's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | +2.9% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.6% | -2.2% | +3.9% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +2.5% | -2.8% | -6.9% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +1.8% | +0.3% | +0.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.2% | -2.1% | +1.8% | +4.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.9% | -3.7% | +0.4% | -3.7% |
| May 12, 2026 | +2.2% | +7.1% | -4.5% | -6.9% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +1.6% | -0.1% | -6.6% | -5.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among COST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,315.00 +33.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 19, 2026 |
1,092.58 +10.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,060.80 +7.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,008.07 +2.1% |
| Now | 986.96 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
982.00 -0.5% |
| 200-day average | 963.72 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 956.61 -3.1% |
| 50-day average | 933.17 -5.4% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 22, 2025 |
846.26 -14.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 770.00 -22.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.