COTY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- COTY +8.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +8.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices COTY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.01 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
3.11 +5.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 3.19 · prior close 2.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.87 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
2.78 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.84 | 2 in 10 days | 3.04 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 2.87 | 3 in 10 days | 3.01 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 2.89 | 4 in 10 days | 2.99 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.73 | 2 in 10 weeks | 3.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 3.11 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 2.83 | 4 in 10 weeks | 3.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From COTY's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among COTY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 1, 2015 |
28.15 +782.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 17, 2025 |
4.34 +36.1% |
| Now | 3.19 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.11 -2.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.94 -7.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.78 -12.8% |
| 50-day average | 2.76 -13.6% |
| 200-day average | 2.52 -20.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 4, 2026 |
1.85 -42.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.