CPA
Moving with the market
- CPA +0.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CPA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
133.46 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
136.47 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 131.80 · prior close 131.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
128.72 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
125.88 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 127.97 | 2 in 10 days | 134.24 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 128.72 | 3 in 10 days | 133.46 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 129.43 | 4 in 10 days | 132.73 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 124.24 | 2 in 10 weeks | 138.27 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 125.88 | 3 in 10 weeks | 136.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 127.43 | 4 in 10 weeks | 134.81 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CPA's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.8% | +1.5% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.2% | +3.1% | +2.6% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -5.8% | -4.0% | -5.6% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.7% | +10.6% | -3.7% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -3.7% | -2.0% | -3.8% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.5% | -1.4% | +1.0% | -8.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.1% | +11.5% | +12.1% | +1.4% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.1% | +11.6% | -7.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among CPA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
155.11 +17.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 136.47 +3.5% |
| Now | 131.80 |
| 50-day average | 131.70 -0.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
131.07 -0.6% |
| 200-day average | 130.17 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 125.88 -4.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
105.11 -20.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.