CPAY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CPAY +2.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.5% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.4%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, CPAY was higher a day later 38 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CPAY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
397.39 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
402.87 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 402.86 · prior close 393.02 | |
| Bargain buy side |
388.70 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
383.42 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 387.30 | 2 in 10 days | 398.82 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 388.70 | 3 in 10 days | 397.39 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 390.00 | 4 in 10 days | 396.06 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 380.35 | 2 in 10 weeks | 406.12 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 383.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 402.87 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 386.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 399.86 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CPAY's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CPAY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 536.00 +33.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 461.00 +14.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 13, 2026 |
425.24 +5.6% |
| 50-day average | 404.23 +0.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 402.87 0.0% |
| Now | 402.86 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
393.02 -2.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 390.00 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 383.42 -4.8% |
| 200-day average | 350.79 -12.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 30, 2025 |
255.00 -36.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.