CPNG
Moving with its e-commerce peers
- CPNG +2.74% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- E-commerce basket +2.5% (+2.4 pts vs SPY; ETSY +7.7%, EBAY +4.9%, SE +1.8%, PDD +1.4%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CPNG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.75 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
15.19 +5.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 14.80 · prior close 14.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
14.06 -2.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
13.65 -5.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.95 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 14.86 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 14.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 14.75 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 14.16 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 14.64 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.42 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 15.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 15.19 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 13.87 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 14.95 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CPNG's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -3.4% | — | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.9% | 0.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -4.6% | +2.0% | -3.1% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.1% | +8.7% | +7.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.2% | -7.3% | -4.4% | -14.6% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.2% | -4.3% | -13.7% | -23.4% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -4.4% | -2.3% | -12.4% | -20.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -8.3% | +11.0% | +25.4% | +0.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CPNG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 15, 2021 |
50.45 +241.0% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 4, 2025 |
32.13 +117.2% |
| 200-day average | 17.74 +19.9% |
| 50-day average | 15.25 +3.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 15.19 +2.7% |
| Now | 14.80 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
14.40 -2.7% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 28, 2026 |
13.75 -7.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.65 -7.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.