CPRT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CPRT +5.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +5.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.6%): After its 55 big gains in the past 5 years, CPRT was higher a week later 29 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +3.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CPRT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
26.81 +2.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
27.50 +4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 27.75 · prior close 26.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
25.74 -2.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
25.09 -4.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 25.57 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 26.99 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 25.74 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 26.81 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 25.90 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 26.65 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 24.72 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 27.91 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 25.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 27.50 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 25.44 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 27.12 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CPRT's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -0.3% | -1.2% | — | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -1.2% | +13.0% | +24.6% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -4.0% | +1.8% | -6.9% | +0.5% |
| May 15, 2026 | -1.1% | +4.6% | -4.8% | -1.9% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -3.1% | +0.2% | +1.4% | -10.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | -7.1% | -0.7% | -7.7% | -11.1% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | -0.2% | -0.1% | -1.4% | -6.2% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | -3.6% | -1.3% | -8.3% | -4.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CPRT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 16, 2025 |
63.84 +130.1% |
| Highest analyst target | 55.00 +98.2% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
45.76 +64.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 39.00 +40.6% |
| 200-day average | 32.94 +18.7% |
| 50-day average | 30.03 +8.3% |
| Now | 27.75 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 27.50 -0.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
26.27 -5.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
26.27 -5.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 25.09 -9.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 25.00 -9.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.