CR
Moving with the market
- CR −0.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
206.49 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
209.64 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 203.94 · prior close 203.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
201.48 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
198.45 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 200.68 | 2 in 10 days | 207.31 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 201.48 | 3 in 10 days | 206.49 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 202.23 | 4 in 10 days | 205.72 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 196.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 211.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 198.45 | 3 in 10 weeks | 209.64 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 200.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 207.91 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CR's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 27, 2026 |
226.16 +10.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 209.64 +2.8% |
| 50-day average | 206.57 +1.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
203.97 0.0% |
| Now | 203.94 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 198.45 -2.7% |
| 200-day average | 197.45 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
160.44 -21.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 4 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.