CRDO
Moving with its ai chips & networking peers
- CRDO −2.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- AI chips & networking basket -2.9% (-3.0 pts vs SPY; ANET -5.0%, AMD -3.2%, MRVL -2.9%, ALAB -2.8%): the stock moved with its peers.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Stifel maintained Buy, lowered target $350 → $310.
- 9 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 2 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CRDO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
189.34 +5.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
202.64 +13.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 175.21 · prior close 179.23 | |
| Bargain buy side |
169.65 -5.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
158.51 -11.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 166.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 192.75 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 169.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 189.34 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 172.49 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 186.22 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 152.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 210.89 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 158.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 202.64 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 164.52 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 195.25 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CRDO's daily swings (about 5.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -7.3% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -8.7% | +10.3% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.9% | +24.8% | +32.1% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -8.6% | -18.7% | +1.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -13.0% | -7.9% | -31.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -9.9% | -2.9% | +4.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.3% | +13.7% | +25.0% | -13.8% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.2% | -4.1% | -8.8% | -13.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among CRDO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 315.00 +79.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
302.52 +72.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 279.09 +59.3% |
| 50-day average | 207.17 +18.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 202.64 +15.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 185.00 +5.6% |
| 200-day average | 180.04 +2.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
179.23 +2.3% |
| Now | 175.21 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 158.51 -9.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
87.81 -49.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.