CRSP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CRSP +2.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CRSP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
51.89 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
54.02 +7.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 51.23 · prior close 50.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
48.61 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
46.68 -7.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 48.09 | 2 in 10 days | 52.44 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 48.61 | 3 in 10 days | 51.89 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 49.09 | 4 in 10 days | 51.38 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 45.59 | 2 in 10 weeks | 55.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 46.68 | 3 in 10 weeks | 54.02 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 47.73 | 4 in 10 weeks | 52.84 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CRSP's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among CRSP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 14, 2021 |
210.04 +310.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2025 |
73.97 +44.4% |
| 50-day average | 54.99 +7.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 54.02 +5.4% |
| 200-day average | 53.13 +3.7% |
| Now | 51.23 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
50.22 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 46.68 -8.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
44.34 -13.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.